Guernsey's birth rate falls: What do people think?

Guernsey's falling birth rate could lead to economic decline unless the States acts to reverse the trend, according to local leading figures.

Islanders face needing to earn more and work longer before retirement to combat the continued drop in the number of women having babies – which has seen a 33% drop in a decade.

BBC News has been speaking to islanders to hear their thoughts on bringing up a family in the bailiwick.

Mum-of-one Elise Trebert, who runs a baby sensory group, has noticed increasing pressures on the parents who come to her weekly sessions.

She said: "We see a lot more mums go back to work earlier - they can't make the classes anymore as they are working longer hours, and money can be an issue as well.

"It's a huge struggle for people becoming parents financially and for their lifestyle.

"People can't afford to upsize their house to have more children – as well as nursery fees childcare costs."

Amelie,16, said that, as things stood, staying in Guernsey long-term was not an attractive option and housing costs were a big factor.

She said: "Looking back at my parents, they came over when I was born and they had a first home-buyers' scheme. Now it's harder to buy houses in Guernsey than in the UK.

"I think there are significantly more opportunities in the UK.

"But, if Guernsey was to evolve and adapt and have more opportunities for young people, it would be an option."

Jack, 16, said he and his friends intend to leave the island to experience more of what the world has to offer.

He said: "If you aren't going in finance, you aren't staying and don't plan in coming back – unless it's in 20 years with kids.

"I have thoroughly enjoyed living in Guernsey growing up, but I am not spending my 20s and 30s here.

"It's such a sheltered community, that's so lovely – with low crime – but there's little to no diversity and it's not the real world."

Guernsey schoolgirl Eva Redelinghuys, 16, spoke on behalf of Guernsey's Youth Parliament in the House of Commons earlier this year about the issues facing young people in the Crown Dependencies.

She told the BBC: "A lot of young people, they have to move off the island to go to university when they are 18, so it becomes really tempting to stay in the UK.

"While people might move back in their 40s and have school age kids, having young kids here seems really difficult in your 20s and 30s.

"I don't think I will, unfortunately."

It comes as the number of islanders of working age has slowed, according to the States Populations Projections report, while policy makers have seen health and social care spending pressures increase with an ageing population.

It is estimated over the next few decades the number of people over the age of 85 will more than double, with the lower birth rate said to be exacerbated by rising living costs.

Dr Andy Sloan, Guernsey's former chief economist and founder of the International Sustainability Institute, said: "You have less workers to produce things for us all to consume. Whether it's food, housing or consumer durables – we are all consuming, but we aren't all producing."

The ageing population also means more pressure on governments to increase health and social care spending to meet extra demand.

Dr Sloan said: "We will have to pay a bit more for social care because we can't afford to pay for everyone to have free access to these services."

Other areas to address include improving attracting younger people through new immigration policies, adequate housing and ensuring a stable education system.

At the same time "we need to encourage more people to have babies and there are policies that can be done to attract that, by providing more support to families that we have cut back on", he said.

The UK, Germany, Japan and the US face similar challenges.

According to States figures, Guernsey's replacement rate is 1.4, below the 2.1 standard needed to sustain productivity and living standards.

The number of Guernsey births was 422 in 2024, in a total population of 2024 64,781. This compares to birth numbers in Q4 of 2014 of 631, giving a drop of 33% in 10 years.

Guernsey has a births-per-1,000 rate of 6.5, making it one of the lowest performing of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, just above South Korea.

Deputy Sasha Miller has called for action to reverse the trend as the "striking" decline means "we are potentially sleeping into much bigger demographic problems than we realised previously", and people even questioned whether to have more children.

"Those are really heartbreaking decisions... I do feel we've got to look much, much stronger at the child care support policies," she said.

There are also impacts on the education system, with declining numbers entering schools, Director of Education Mark Hynes said, adding "broader solutions were needed... rather than just education in isolation".

He said: "The community, the States of Guernsey as a whole needs to come up with a strategy about how to ensure it's attractive for families to stay and live and have children here."

It is projected Guernsey work force will fall by an average rate of 0.5% per annum, States figures say, with an annual net migration of "slightly more than 300" to maintain current workforce levels.

Another challenge for policy makers will be balancing public finances to meet complex demographic challenges.

Dr Andy Sloan believes there needs to be a "change the social contract to make it fairer to the next generation when there are less of them".

He said: "You can't continually ask the young generation to take a greater burden – you have to say these promises were made when times were different."

The States of Guernsey has been contacted for a comment.

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